Americans were shocked by Joe Biden’s retirement from the US presidential race on July 21, when the elections were just three months away. There are many opinions about the reasons behind Biden’s retreat, such as his suboptimal performance during the debate with Trump, age factors, internal problems in the Democratic Party, and others.
Regardless of the reason, the Democratic Party must immediately raise a new name as a presidential candidate to replace Biden.
The Power of Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice president, is rumored to be the front-runner to replace Biden. If Kamala is selected as the presidential candidate at the Democratic National Convention (August 19 to 22, 2024), she will be the first black woman of Asian descent to run for the American presidency. This might greatly reduce the level of Afrophobia in the United States after the “Black Lives Matter” movement in 2020 during Trump’s presidency.
Therefore, after Biden withdrew, Harris immediately gathered support from each state delegation to get herself elected at the Democratic National Convention. Her efforts paid off with the acquisition of 200 million dollars in financial support and 170,000 volunteers in just one week.
Harris’ emergence has both Trump and his campaign team furious and worried. Recently (August 10,2024), poll results from The New York Times and Siena College reported that Harris was 4% ahead of Trump in three pivotal states in the electoral college: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Previously, in May 2024, Biden was only ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.
Trump benefited from the shooting tragedy while campaigning in Pennsylvania on July 13. His campaign team used the tragedy to frame Biden and gain public sympathy for Trump. However, his current opponent is not Biden anymore, but Harris, who did not have any issues regarding the tragedy. Moreover, Harris is reportedly going to collaborate with Tim Walz as her vice-presidential candidate.
Walz is not to be underestimated, claiming a stronger connection of the working class and rural communities than Trump-Vance. His track record as an Army National Guard soldier, teacher, and politician known for standing up for working people is a threat to Trump and Vance. Voters from the working class and rural communities could turn to Harris and Walz if Trump and Vance do not take immediate action.
American Young Voters
In addition to the struggle over voters from the working class and rural communities, young voters, or Gen Z, are also a group contested by Trump and Harris. The results of polling in March 2024 from the Harvard Youth Poll showed that Biden was ahead of Trump by 45% to 37%. However, Harvard also notes that this support is likely to change rapidly according to mood swings on certain issues.
Their findings show several important issues for Gen Z that have the potential to change their mood in the election. These issues are inflation, healthcare, housing, and gun violence. Inflation, housing, and gun violence are issues that affect future certainty for Gen Z.
Gen Z, as the FOMO generation, is shadowed by a gloomy and uncertain future. Thus, they experience great anxiety about the uncertainty of the future. When compared to Gen Z in Indonesia, based on the findings of Youthlab’s survey of youth in 10 Indonesian cities, future uncertainties such as family economic conditions, employment, and home ownership are their biggest sources of concern.
The healthcare issue is closely related to Gen Z, who grew up during the Covid-19 pandemic. Mental and physical health are important considerations for Gen Z. The results of the YouthLab survey in March 2024 show that life balance, as a continuation of mental health, is an important issue in their work.
Asian American Voter
Beyond the support of young Americans, Biden also has great support from young Asian American. The Harvard Youth Poll (July 10, 2024) shows that young Asian Americans favor Biden as president over Trump, despite a decrease in the percentage of support from Indian-American people compared to 2020. Can Harris channel Biden’s support to her, during the election on November 5?
Harris probably can. With her maternal Indian ancestry, Harris could attract Asian American sympathizers, possibly even restoring the declining Indian-American support. It is challenging for Trump to attract Asian American support unless he has the initiative to reconsider America’s support for Israel, which is unlikely.
Neither does Harris pursue an arms embargo on Israel; she was only able to call for a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine after Israel attacked a school building in Gaza last Saturday. Whether Trump or Harris wins the presidency, the American-Israel relationship will remain strong.
But for Harris, even without changing that relationship, she still has the potential to be supported by the Asian-American people. Unfortunately, this does not work for Trump, who does not have Asian roots.